Misestimation
When it comes to estimating the size of demographic groups, Americans rarely get it right.
YouGovAmerica: From millionaires to Muslims, small subgroups of the population seem much larger to many Americans
When people’s average perceptions of group sizes are compared to actual population estimates, an intriguing pattern emerges: Americans tend to vastly overestimate the size of minority groups.
This holds for sexual minorities, including the proportion of
gays and lesbians (estimate: 30%, true: 3%),
bisexuals (estimate: 29%, true: 4%), and people who are
transgender (estimate: 21%, true: 0.6%).
It also applies to religious minorities, such as
Muslim Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%) and
Jewish Americans (estimate: 30%, true: 2%).
And we find the same sorts of overestimates for racial and ethnic minorities, such as
Native Americans (estimate: 27%, true: 1%),
Asian Americans (estimate: 29%, true: 6%), and
Black Americans (estimate: 41%, true: 12%).
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